Our 'nowcast' is NOT a prediction of how the next election, whenever that may be, will turnout. It is a rough picture of how the House of Commons would be made up if an election was held today. Using the figures from the polling average, we apply a Uniform National Swing based upon the suggested changes of national support for each party. Whilst we acknowledge that Uniform National Swing is not perfect, it has generally been relatively accurate in the past.
Nowcast over time:
Possible Governments over time:
LAB Led= Labour Party+ Scottish National Party+ Plaid Cymru+ Green Party
CON Led+ Conservative Party+ UKIP+ Brexit Party+ Democratic Unionist Party
Centre= Liberal Democrat+ Change UK