Westminster Voting Intention Polling Average

A poll of 1,000 people generally provides a rough picture of how the nation is intending to vote but on their own, can provide a misleading picture of public opinion. It is important to look at an average of the polls to get a more accurate picture of what is likely to happen. Polling provides a rough picture of the current 'political temperature' but it must be remembered that under the UK's First Past the Post electoral system, there is little relationship between vote-share and the number of seats won by a party. 

Our Poll Tracker is a smoothed six point rolling average and thus, quickly captures changes and movement in public support. Adjustments are made to remove dates where more than one average is taken. Many pollsters include the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru under 'other' so including them here would not tell us very much about their level of support. Individual polls are available here.


Current Polling Average

But aren't the polls always wrong? 

Well, sort of. In 2015, there was major disparity between the results of the election and the opinion polls. This was, however, entirely between the Conservative and Labour parties and in many cases were within the margin of error. Since then we've seen Brexit (a genuine surprise), and President Trump. With the US Election, the polls did provide a roughly accurate picture of the final popular vote shares but were inaccurate when it came to state-by-state polling. As well as this, there have been some genuine 'polling hits', such as the recent election in the Netherlands, that tend to go unreported. At the 2017 general election, some polls underestimated Labour rather than the Conservatives but this could be put down to the fact that following the 2015 polling-miss, many pollsters were trying out different untested methodology. Survation and YouGov were widely dismissed during the campaign but came very close in projecting the final result.

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